{"id":17483,"date":"2025-02-21T16:18:37","date_gmt":"2025-02-21T16:18:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brizodata.com\/?p=17483"},"modified":"2025-03-08T13:45:08","modified_gmt":"2025-03-08T13:45:08","slug":"surviving-tariff-uncertainty-predicting-the-future-of-foodservice-amid-price-shocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/brizodata.com\/en\/surviving-tariff-uncertainty-predicting-the-future-of-foodservice-amid-price-shocks\/","title":{"rendered":"Surviving Tariff Uncertainty: Predicting the Future of Foodservice Amid Price Shocks"},"content":{"rendered":"

As US tariff threats loom, waves of concern and speculation are rippling through the foodservice industry.<\/p>\n

Will the proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports \u2014 currently postponed to March 2025 \u2014 actually take effect? What about the recently announced \u201cretaliatory tariffs\u201d on global trading partners? One thing is certain: whether imposed or merely threatened, tariffs create uncertainty and stress for all industry players.<\/p>\n

Instead of speculating, the best approach is to ground your decisions in data. With so much up in the air, anxious businesses need objective industry insights to understand what\u2019s actually happening and plan for possible market shifts.<\/p>\n

In this article, we\u2019ll explore some practical ways to set aside speculation in favor of actionable analysis. We\u2019ll cover some examples of how foodservice data and insights from Brizo FoodMetrics can answer questions both simple (like how many US establishments use avocado, a major Mexican export) and complex (using a simulator to <\/span>model the impact of tariffs<\/strong> <\/span>on menu prices and profitability).<\/p>\n

Mapping the impact on iconic menu items<\/h2>\n

If tariffs do come into play, the first step is understanding which ingredients and dishes would be most affected\u2026and how many establishments are poised to take a hit.<\/p>\n

In <\/span>2023<\/a>, the US imported over $40 billion worth of Canadian agricultural products. Canola oil alone accounted for $4.8 billion \u2014 a staple in most commercial kitchens. Meanwhile, $1.6 billion of imported frozen potato products equals a <\/span>lot<\/em> <\/span>of fries.<\/p>\n

A quick data pull from Brizo FoodMetrics reveals that 379,000 US establishments feature fries on their menu, many likely deep-fried in canola oil. Though fries are typically a high-margin menu item, a 25% increase in supply costs would put additional pressure on a large number of operators.<\/p>\n

What about the other half of the classic burger combo? It turns out that Canadian beef products account for $3 billion of annual US imports. With 246,000 establishments serving burgers in the US, will the industry\u2019s <\/span>recent<\/a> <\/span>focus on \u201cvalue meal wars\u201d remain sustainable in the face of tariffs?<\/p>\n

Keep reading to see how our predictive model calculates the post-tariff price of a burger and fries.<\/p>\n

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US establishments with fries on their menu. Source: Brizo FoodMetrics, February 2025<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

Visualizing vulnerability across market segments<\/h2>\n

From avocado toast to guacamole, Americans consume a lot of avocados, and very few of them are grown domestically. Mexican avocados account for <\/span>89%<\/a> <\/span>of all avocados imported into the US. In fact, vegetables, fruit, beverages, and distilled spirits make up almost three quarters (72.5%<\/a>) of US agricultural imports from Mexico.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s clear that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports would have a significant impact on US operators and consumers, but would that impact be evenly distributed? Do certain ingredients correlate more closely with specific cuisines, chains, or regions? Identifying these connections can help determine which segments are better (or worse) positioned to weather the tariff storm.<\/p>\n

Detailed menu and business data from Brizo FoodMetrics can reveal existing patterns and groupings, offering a clearer picture of market volatility.<\/p>\n

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US establishments using avocado as an ingredient. Source: Brizo FoodMetrics, February 2025<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

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Let\u2019s take a closer look at US operators using avocado as an ingredient. Out of 518,000 establishments with avocado on their menu, 287,000 are independents, while 231,000 belong to chains.<\/p>\n

Brizo\u2019s chart view helps visualize which operator segments may be most affected by rising avocado prices. American and Mexican cuisines rely most heavily on avocados, with top chains like Subway, Taco Bell, and Chipotle reflecting this trend.<\/p>\n

Geographically, California leads the states in avocado usage\u2026no surprise there. But would you have guessed that New Jersey ranks seventh? Insights like these help identify where tariff impacts could hit hardest, allowing operators, manufacturers, and distributors to stay informed and ready to adapt.<\/p>\n

Building a data-driven tariff vulnerability index<\/h2>\n

So far, we\u2019ve only scratched the surface with a few straightforward data points. The real power comes from combining these insights into a multi-dimensional, interactive model.<\/p>\n

One approach we\u2019ve been exploring is a <\/span>tariff vulnerability index<\/strong>. Imagine a holistic scoring system and accompanying report highlighting specific risks and recommendations. Such a model would go beyond simple cost analysis to deliver a comprehensive risk assessment based on multiple market factors.<\/p>\n

How can Brizo FoodMetrics data be leveraged to support this model? Here are a few key components:<\/p>\n